Anyone who knows me will tell you that I am pretty right-wing. I am opposed to socialism. But I am calling this one for Obama.
I haven’t watched the debates, I haven’t seen the ads, I haven’t kept up with the news. And I haven’t changed my mind.
Why is this? Let me count the ways.
- Obama was not as bad as the right had feared. When they accused him of not being born in the US and hounded him for his birth certificate, I warned that this sort of behavior was beneath them and would come back to bite them.
- The economy has improved in the past four years. Not as much as anyone would have liked, to be sure, but it has been a good run.
- The GOP is a mess. They have lost touch with their conservative roots and have turned into a party of Big-Government, Big-Corporation, Big-Military. And the way that they ignored Ron Paul at the RNC was downright shameful.
But the biggest reason that Obama will win is that elections are not won, they are lost.
- Gore lost in 2000 because of Clinton’s scandals.
- Kerry lost in 2004 because of doubts about his character.
- McCain lost in 2008 because he could not prove that he wasn’t GWB – and the country – myself included – was sick of GWB.
- Romney will lose because he is not offering anything new.
Indeed, I suspect that in spite of their huge ideological differences, there would be little real difference between the two candidates when in the White House – and when that happens, the incumbent has the advantage.
So Obama will win. And it won’t even be close.